IS THE
FISHERMEN CABINET FIT TO DRIVE UGANDA THROUGH THE SPEED LIMITS OF THE FOURTH
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION?
Economic historians tell us that the industrial
revolution is the most important event in history of humanity since the
domestication of plants and animals. The first industrial revolution saw the
use of water and steam to mechanize production, the second industrial
revolution involved the use of electric power to create mass production,
electronic and information technology were previously used to automate
production in the third industrial revolution whereas the current fourth
industrial revolution alias the revolution of Technology is a fusion of
technologies including the digital, physical and biological spheres.
The fourth industrial revolution is characterized by
emerging technology breakthroughs in Artificial Intelligence(Self driving cars,
drones, virtual assistants, soft wares that translate, discover new drugs, detect
disease etc), robotics, internet of things, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing,
Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Material Science, Energy storage and Quantum
Computing.
The fourth industrial revolution presents us with
opportunities like the potential to raise global incomes and improve the quality of life for example
ordering a cab (Uber, safe boda), booking a flight, buying a product (Amazon,
Albaba, Jumia), making payments, listening to music, playing games, electronic
procurements among other things. The era also comes along with challenges like
disruption of the labour market (displacement of workers) yet again aggregating
safe and rewarding jobs.
THE CASE FOR UGANDA.
The economy/ wealth of any nation(GDP) is divided
into three broad categories thus; Agriculture, Industry and services. Following
Rostow’s stages of economic development, Uganda has stagnated between “Preconditions
for take off stage”(transforming Agriculture to industry) and ‘Take off stage”
(Manufacturing. This is evidenced in both Vision 2040 which aspires to
transform the Ugandan society from a peasant to a modern prosperous
economy with a GDP per capita of $ 9500;
and the theme for the budget of financial year 2021/22 which is
“Industrialisation for Inclusive growth, employment and wealth creation.
Today Agriculture is about 24.5% of Uganda’s GDP and
Industry has stagnated at 27% of the GDP. These figures relate to an economy
that is 168.3trillion ($40 billion) big with a public debt estimated to be
about $18billion and a GDP per capita of $794. The era of technology has
manifested that it can easily turn around the economy of any country/
organization forexample; Apple Inc, a multinational technology company dealing
in consumer electronics, software and online services is the fourth largest
company when it comes to computer sales and smart phone manufacture with a net worth
of $2Trillion and a net income of $57billion, a figure bigger than the total
GDP of Uganda! Amazon is worth $1.5trillion, Albaba is over $640billion worth and Facebook Inc. had a
networth of $159billion and a net income of $29.15billion(slightly less than
the total wealth of Uganda!) as of 2020.
Three years back or there about, the president of
the republic of Uganda appointed a minister to the portfolio of ICT and
National guidance only to shock social media gurus when they realized she
possessed not a twitter account! Just a month back, another state minister in
the ministry of ICT and national guidance ascended to office without a twitter
account. The pearl of Africa is territory of endless possibilities. Recently,
there’s a great trek to twitter largely by opposition members of Parliament
thanks to the new leader of opposition. Does this explain why the management of
Twitter.Inc had to find their headquarters in Africa placed in Ghana?
The Covid19 pandemic is hitherto reminding us that
we are getting late to catch up with the fourth industrial revolution. During
the first lockdown in Uganda, the education sector was hit hard and government
thought radios and Televisions would remedy the station notwithstanding the
fact that 72% of Ugandans get information from radio stations, only 9% from Tv
and 1.6% from social media. As to how
students learn through radios is a conversation for another day. Well Uganda
has over 15million students captured in the education sector and its assumed
that these should be biggest consumers of the fourth industrial revolution with
all the opportunities it has to offer. Need I remind you that Kenya five years
back equipped all its teachers with laptops while students were equipped with tablets?
THE FUTURE OF
JOBS REPORT (2020-2025) AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR UGANDA
The future of Jobs report by the World
Economic Forum provides timely insights needed to orient labour markets
and workers towards opportunity today and the future of work. The report is
compiled when global leaders, politicians, scientists, economic experts and professionals
convene to map the jobs and skills of the future, tracking the pace of change
and direction of travel. Since 2018, a third edition was held in 2020 with
specific focus on the Covid19 pandemic and how technology driven job creation is expected to
outpace job destruction over the next
five years. The major highlights of the report are thus;
In 2018, the report had predicted that between the
period 2018-2023, the world would lose 70million jobs to technology. In much
the same period, technology would create 122million jobs! For the period
2020-2025, the world economic forum has estimated in this report that the world would lose
85million jobs to technology and technology shall create 97million new jobs!
How countries like Uganda are preparing themselves for such dynamics especially
in the pandemic is a question for me, you and our leadership.
The report suggests that eight in ten (8/10) young
people in the lower and middle income economies shall have create their own
jobs. Simply put, 80% of young be in low and kiddle income countries should be Entrepreneurs.
Well Uganda being among the best entrepreneurial countries may eat big.
About 43% of
the businesses will reduce their work force and integrate technology. 41% of
the businesses/companies will only employ people on contract. With the Covid19
pandemic, everyone should look through what awaits them.
62% of the employees shall be taken back for
reskilling. Reskilling and repurpose of employees displaced by technology shall
be to cushion cut offs. Two thirds of the employers will get a return of
investment on reskilling their workers within one year.
34% of the businesses will increase the workforce
along technology lines. Newer skilled professionals will increase from 8% to
13%.
Nearly 44% of the employees are able to work
remotely in the pandemic and human resource executives are considering structural adjustments with digitization
facilitating the process.
The inequality gap shall increase, with women and
young people and lower wage workers to be negatively impacted.
The top 10 jobs with increasing demand in order are;
Data analysts, Scientists, Artificial Intelligence & Machine learning
specialists, Big data specialists, digital marketing& strategy specialists,
Process automation specialists, Business development professionals, digital
transformation specialists, Information security analysts, Software/Application
developers and Internet of things specialists.
Conversely, the top jobs with decreasing demand in
order are; Data entry clerks, Admnistrative and Executive secretaries,, Pay
roll& bookkeeping clerks, Accountants &Auditors, assembly and factory workers, Business
services and administrative managers,, Clients Information& Customer
service workers, General and Operations
managers, Mechanical Machinery repairers and stock keeping clerks.
CONCLUSION
Uganda’s internet penetration according to the
2021/22 budget speech stands at 52%. With 21million internet users and 3million
facebook users, someone should remind
the president to free facebook such that online businesses like Jumia, online
botiques, shops and restaurants thrive and we reduce unemployment. Government
should deliberately move to step up internet coverage to about 95% given its associated
advantages as exposed by the pandemic.
Government shall have to update and fund the
education systems, revisit the curriculum and ensure skills retraining to
cushion the displaced workers. Courses like GIS& Remote sensing should be
priotized in all the major education institutions given the dynamics of the
time. The fishermen cabinet may need factory retting to match the times!
The writer is a Zoologist and a member of Buganda Youth Council
mutagubya.allan4@gmail.com
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